Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.883738 1.029824 1.192083 1.385619 1.610159 1.862462 2.167511
2025-01-19 0.620603 0.807359 1.038019 1.343656 1.737960 2.229581 2.889442
2025-01-26 0.503887 0.708428 0.980644 1.369031 1.908807 2.632591 3.677646
2025-02-02 0.446622 0.668793 0.982947 1.458862 2.161348 3.160324 4.690273
2025-02-09 0.392157 0.620282 0.960258 1.502755 2.346355 3.608476 5.642316
2025-02-16 0.344207 0.571841 0.927441 1.521890 2.490374 4.006535 6.563240
2025-02-23 0.301879 0.524566 0.887735 1.521196 2.598065 4.355008 7.442845
2025-03-02 0.264837 0.479817 0.844711 1.506780 2.677523 4.662098 8.286079
2025-03-09 0.236444 0.445446 0.813697 1.506947 2.778780 5.013024 9.241134
2025-03-16 0.204686 0.400229 0.757231 1.453280 2.775668 5.178717 9.882837
2025-03-23 0.197466 0.399693 0.781286 1.549883 3.058213 5.886497 11.599358
2025-03-30 0.174315 0.364939 0.736401 1.508705 3.072918 6.096901 12.394189
2025-04-06 0.152625 0.330652 0.689074 1.458603 3.067816 6.276347 13.167183
2025-04-13 0.134245 0.300761 0.646898 1.413824 3.068562 6.469012 13.995531
2025-04-20 0.124730 0.288496 0.639407 1.440489 3.220958 6.985949 15.560654
2025-04-27 0.121763 0.290300 0.661998 1.534952 3.530543 7.866446 18.012221
2025-05-04 0.115138 0.282760 0.663001 1.581107 3.738360 8.551125 20.113714
2025-05-11 0.107280 0.271180 0.653316 1.601228 3.888822 9.125277 22.032382
2025-05-18 0.098880 0.257072 0.635876 1.600499 3.989659 9.596870 23.766077
2025-05-25 0.090487 0.241801 0.613708 1.585339 4.053610 9.989245 25.356645
2025-06-01 0.083801 0.229991 0.598508 1.585516 4.155206 10.482233 27.252413
2025-06-08 0.074883 0.211032 0.562963 1.529082 4.106403 10.602279 28.225423
2025-06-15 0.074385 0.214864 0.586573 1.630664 4.479779 11.818322 32.162683